Standfirst:
Policy failures often start as weak signals. A small, disciplined cell can scan, quantify, and translate those signals into timely, usable advice.

Mission & scope

• Detect and assess emerging political, security, humanitarian, and economic risks with clear thresholds that trigger internal alerts and external briefings.

• Provide quarterly scenarios with policy options, and monthly nowcasts of key indicators.

Operating model

1. Horizon scanning → Structured weekly scan across official sources (UN, World Bank, IMF, WHO, OCHA), regional bodies, and vetted research institutes.

2. Indicator suite → A lean dashboard mixing leading indicators (e.g., food price anomalies, displacement flows), coincident indicators (market liquidity, remittance volumes), and risk modifiers (governance, exposure).

3. Assessment method → Traffic-light risk ratings with written confidence levels; explicit “what would change our view” notes.

4. Foresight tools → Short set of scenarios (baseline, upside, downside), assumptions log, and pre-mortems on flagship options.

5. Briefing rhythm →

   • Weekly: 1-page signal log;

   • Monthly: dashboard + analytic note;

   • Quarterly: scenario pack + options memo.

Minimum data backbone (trusted sources)

• UN OCHA / HDX (humanitarian needs, displacement); WHO (health emergencies); World Bank WDI and IMF WEO (macro trends); FAO (food security); UN DESA (population); OECD (governance, aid flows).

Governance & quality

• Written methods guide; peer review of monthly notes; versioned datasets; explicit limitations on each indicator (lag, bias).

• Ethics & protection: do-no-harm, data minimization, and consent when using microdata.

Editor’s note (opinion): Fewer indicators, updated more often, beat bloated dashboards that no one reads. Tie each metric to a decision.

References 

OECD Government at a Glance; UN OCHA/HDX data use guidance; World Bank WDI; IMF World Economic Outlook; WHO Health Emergencies; UK Government Office for Science, Futures Toolkit.